Semin Liver Dis 1985 Nov;5(4):385-93

Influence of selected patient variables and operative blood loss on six-mont
survival following liver transplantation

Shaw BW Jr, Wood RP, Gordon RD, Iwatsuki S, Gillquist WP, Starzl TE

Abstract
A group of 118 adults who underwent primary, orthotopic transplantation of the
liver over a 4-year period served as the subjects of a detailed examination of
their ability to survive the first 6 months as a function of their preoperative
condition. As a result, a scoring system was developed empirically in an attempt
to separate very high-risk from relatively low-risk patients. The scoring method
is based on the high degree of correlation between survival probability and
various patient characteristics. It allows for additional scoring to account for
the dramatic effect of operative blood loss on the eventual outcome. The curve
that best describes the relationship between patient scores and survival
probability is sigmoidal in shape. Many patients will have scores located on the
curve between the inflection points. They represent a group whose relative risk
is difficult to estimate but for whom operative blood loss or the occurrence of
surgical complications may prove particularly telling